Hotel overbooking calculator
The overbooking level that maximises expected revenue once no-shows and walked guests are both priced in.
How many extra rooms to sell
Room at another hotel, transfer and any goodwill gesture.
Recommended overbooking
+6 rooms
accept up to 126 bookings for 120 rooms
Extra expected revenue per night
$482
about $175942 over a year of similar nights
| Extra rooms | Expected empty rooms | Guests to walk | Expected net revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0 | 7.2 | 0.00 | $12408 |
| +1 | 6.3 | 0.00 | $12511 |
| +2 | 5.3 | 0.01 | $12613 |
| +3 | 4.4 | 0.02 | $12710 |
| +4 | 3.5 | 0.08 | $12795 |
| +5 | 2.7 | 0.20 | $12859 |
| +6 | 2.0 | 0.42 | $12890 |
| +7 | 1.4 | 0.76 | $12881 |
| +8 | 0.9 | 1.24 | $12828 |
| +9 | 0.6 | 1.84 | $12733 |
How it works: every booking you accept has a chance of not turning up. The calculator models arrivals night by night for each overbooking level and weighs the revenue from rooms that would otherwise sit empty against the cost of the guests you would have to walk.
The walk cost is what it takes to relocate a guest you cannot host: a comparable room elsewhere, the transfer and a gesture to make up for it. The higher it is, the more cautious the recommendation.
Use your own no-show and late-cancellation rate for the same season and day of the week, not a yearly average: a Tuesday in November and a Saturday in August behave very differently. Non-refundable and prepaid bookings lower the real risk.
In the glossary: Overbooking · No-show
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